What Is The Macro Frame?
A place to share my macro investing ideas, what I’m putting money into, and the thinking behind it.
My work is written for myself to improve over time as a semi-time professional investor. Please don’t trade on the information I put out, and always conduct a comprehensive analysis of your own before investing any money anywhere.
My Edge
My edge comes down to reading the sentiment at market tops and bottoms, identifying distinct human behavioural patterns and taking positions when things get extreme. I combine this psychological approach with classic technical and fundamental analysis.
This strategy is working for me! My goal is to outperform the S&P 500, which I’ve done over the last decade.
My Background
In the early 2000s I set up a series of e-commerce websites, capitalising on the early boom in people ordering things on the internet. Going from finding suppliers all the way through to making a website, selling, and turning a profit gave me a great 101 into business at a very young age, and a lifelong interest in ‘business’ was born.
My curiosity then took me into the corporate world, where I’d spend the next 10 years in fintech across a series of companies, from a major bank in New Zealand through to my most recent role with a leading U.S. crypto exchange. I managed large customer-facing teams and worked across fraud operations, user research, product, and growth marketing.
As well as the obligatory “Yes I drove revenue!”, the bits I really enjoyed in each role were the human psychology element and pattern matching. I loved everything from analysing the incentives of fraudsters, to designing qualitative and quantitative studies to understand trader behaviour, through to figuring out what truly makes a good user experience.
In my spare time, an interest in Bitcoin was brewing as I was learning more about Austrian economics. Yes, it’s always fun to watch the Bitcoin price go up, but again, what really fascinated me was how the price chart visualised human emotion. The price rises amplified the arrogance and hubris and turned it up to infinity at the top. Watching this kind of temporary mass psychosis of market participants is really what grabbed me.
Bitcoin has now had three cycles since, and each one is as humbling to an investor as the last, even though you feel like you know what’s coming each time. The patterns rhyme, they don’t repeat precisely. At each stage, the natural response as an investor is almost always the wrong one.
The people who outperform long-term have learned to override themselves and detect the patterns that emerge during these peaks and troughs. The market rewards that self-mastery: conviction, patience, and the willingness to hold when everything in you is screaming to sell.
Disclaimer
All content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Nothing here should be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. All views are personal opinions. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. By reading this publication, you agree that the author accepts no liability for any losses or decisions arising from its content.
