What Is The Macro Frame?
The Macro Frame is where I write about macro investing, commodities, Bitcoin and market psychology. I use it to document investment theses, explain my portfolio decisions and sharpen my thinking over time.
My aim is to identify the economic and market forces that will matter over a 1-3 year timeframe. A thesis I publish may not appear obvious when it is published, however, when revisited a year later I want the the conclusions to have offered a useful view of what came next.
I write to discover what I think and to improve my own process: setting out what I believe, the evidence behind it and what could prove me wrong. Nothing published here should be treated as investment advice, and readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
My Approach
My approach combines fundamental and technical analysis with close attention to sentiment, incentives and recurring patterns in investor behaviour. I am particularly interested in periods when consensus becomes extreme and the gap between sentiment and underlying fundamentals widens.
My long-term goal is to outperform the S&P 500 over full market cycles. That requires not only identifying attractive assets, but also patience, disciplined position sizing and a willingness to revisit a thesis when the evidence changes.
My Background
In the early 2000s, I built a series of small e-commerce websites. Taking them from finding suppliers through to building the websites, selling products and turning a profit gave me an early, hands-on education in business and started a lasting interest in how companies, customers and markets behave.
I later spent nearly a decade working in banking and crypto, from Bank of New Zealand to Kraken. I led customer-facing teams and cross-functional initiatives spanning fraud operations, user research, product and growth. The common thread was understanding human behaviour, finding patterns in complex information and translating those insights into better decisions.
My interest in Bitcoin grew alongside my interest in Austrian economics. Watching the price rise was naturally exciting, but what held my attention was how clearly each market cycle reflected human emotion. Confidence became euphoria on the way up, while falling prices turned uncertainty into fear and, eventually, capitulation.
Several cycles later, my conviction in Bitcoin is stronger, but so is my respect for how difficult even familiar markets are to navigate. Markets rhyme rather than repeat, and the instinctive response is often the wrong one.
Long-term outperformance therefore depends partly on analysis and partly on self-management: maintaining conviction when the evidence supports it, remaining patient and recognising when new information requires a change of view.
Disclaimer
All content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. Nothing here should be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. All views are personal opinions. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital, and readers are responsible for their own investment decisions.
