What Is The Macro Frame?
The Macro Frame is where I write about macro investing, commodities, Bitcoin and market psychology. I use it to document investment theses, explain my portfolio decisions and improve my decision-making processes.
My goal is to uncover the economic and market forces that will matter over a one-to-three-year horizon. A thesis I publish may not appear obvious when it is published; however, when revisited a year later, I want the conclusions to offer a useful view of what came next.
My Approach
My approach combines fundamental and technical analysis with close attention to sentiment and investor behaviour. I am particularly interested in periods when extreme gaps emerge between sentiment and fundamentals, as that is where I have found the greatest opportunity.
My Background
In the early 2000s, I built e-commerce websites, from finding suppliers to selling products and making a profit. This gave me an early, hands-on business education and sparked a lasting interest in how companies, customers, and markets behave.
I later spent nearly a decade working in banking and crypto, from Bank of New Zealand to Kraken. I led customer-facing teams and cross-functional initiatives spanning user research, product, growth, and fraud operations. The common thread was understanding human behaviour, finding patterns in complex information and translating those insights into better decisions.
My passion for Bitcoin grew alongside an interest in Austrian economics. Watching the price rise was naturally exciting, but what held my attention was how clearly each market cycle reflected human emotion. Confidence became euphoria on the way up, while falling prices turned uncertainty into fear and, eventually, capitulation.
Several cycles later, my conviction in Bitcoin is stronger, but so is my respect for how difficult even familiar markets are to navigate. Markets rhyme rather than repeat, and the instinctive response is often the wrong one.
Long-term outperformance therefore depends partly on analysis and partly on self-management: maintaining conviction when the fundamentals support it, remaining patient and recognising when new information requires a change of view.
Disclaimer
All content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. Nothing here should be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. All views are personal opinions. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital, and readers are responsible for their own investment decisions.
